Marketnomix Country Insights on the website are for illustrative purposes and are examples of some of our earlier research. For latest updates and Country Insights, interested persons may write to us at contact@marketnomix.com

MARKETNOMIX COUNTRY INSIGHTS

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CHINA

  • The economy is expected to receive a boost from over USD 350 billion in infrastructure spending by the government on railway construction, highways, and waterways over the course of the year.
  • While the inflationary environment remains benign, the room for the People’s Bank of China to lower the policy rate (currently at 4.35 percent) remains limited.
  • The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which many see China as spearheading, is expected to be finalized by the end of 2017 and together with a weaker RMB is expected to provide a boost to China’s exports over the medium term.

Economic growth in China is expected to come in around 6.5% in 2017 compared to 6.7% in 2016.

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MARKETNOMIX COUNTRY INSIGHTS

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INDONESIA

  • The fiscal constraint will remain a stumbling block to any significant pick up in public spending.
  • While household consumption is expected to remain the mainstay of the economy, recent high frequency indicators are pointing to some moderation in consumption growth.
  • Interest rates and the exchange rate are expected to remain stable in the near-term

The Indonesian economy is expected to grow around 5% y-o-y in 2017, with risks tilted to the downside, after having come in at 5.0% y-o-y in 2016.

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INDIA

  • Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside
  • Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms
  • RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee has ruled out rate cuts for some time to come. The rupee remains sharply overvalued

India’s economic growth as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) continued to slow in 3QFY2017 down to 6.6% y-o-y, the slowest in the past two years compared to a 7.8% growth in FY2016.

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UNITED STATES

  • The recent debacle surrounding the Trump administration’s plan to pass a new healthcare bill has raised questions on the ability of the administration to implement fiscal stimulus measures going forward.
  • The Federal Reserve has maintained status quo on future policy rate expectations
  • The US dollar is expected to strengthen going forward.

The recent debacle surrounding the Trump administration’s plan to pass a new healthcare bill has raised questions on the ability of the administration to implement fiscal stimulus measures going forward.

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EUROZONE

  • The Eurozone economy is expected to grow 1.7% in 2017, the same pace of growth witnessed in 2016.
  • Private consumption is expected to remain the mainstay of the economy, while there are early indications that investment activity could pick up through the course of the year.
  • Uncertainty about the outcome of elections in France, Germany, and Italy could lead businesses and households to hold back on spending.

The Eurozone economy is expected to grow 1.7% in 2017, the same pace of growth witnessed in 2016.

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